Sep 27, 2007

Week 4 Picks

Week 4, and the beginning of bye weeks, which means I can’t just blanket pick the Titans, like I should have last week, or pick against the Ain’ts, like I should have last week. The lesson as always is I am an idiot. Home teams still in bold.

Green Bay (-2.5) over Minnesota

Tarvaris Jackson. Brooks Bollinger. Kelly Holcomb. Pick your poison Packers, because no matter who is under center, you will have to deal with an above average Vikings defense. They held that high-flying Lions offense to 20 points, and have shown a penchant for scoring off of turnovers all year. I don’t know if this Favre return to form is permanent, but for them to get a win in Minnesota, he’ll have to take care of the ball.

Miami (-4) over Oakland

I didn’t realize that the AFC East was still an actual division, since the Bills seemed to content to roll over and die last weekend for the team that would be king. I think that the Trent Green Concussion Pool pays out this week against this defense, and that means the Ray-Duhrs win, but don’t have enough firepower to cover.

New Jersey B-Team (-3.5) over Buffalo

Who wants to be runner up to the most dominating team of the past 10 years? With J.P. Losman getting injured last week, and attempting to come back off a sprained knee that did not look fun, I don’t think they have a snowball’s chance in hell. Plus, Losman is their second leading rusher. And their starting quarterback. Yep, a lot of problems with this team.

Houston (-3) over Atlanta

Did you know that Matt Schaub sat on the bench for years behind Michael Vick? Yep, and then right after they Falcons traded him, Vick went to jail for [redacted] charges. There. It’s been said, please announcers, let’s keep the game watchable for me by not harping on this all day. It doesn’t even matter if Andre Johnson plays or not, the Texans are far and away the better team in this match-up. Wow, haven’t been able to say that a whole lot over the years.

Chicago (-3) over Detroit

And the Grossman era in Chi-town is over. But why now? Why not after he threw away (literally) the Super Bowl? Ugh. By the way, this is the second most ridiculous line of the week (see favored by 3, Houston). Did Urlacher have a stroke we don’t know about?

Cleveland (+4) over Baltimore

I stand by my comments from last week regarding Brian Billick’s offense and covering spreads. Even against the fake Browns.

Dallas (-13) over St. Louis

Rams minus Stephen Jackson minus Orlando Pace minus any semblance of a defense equals big day by the boys from big D.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) over Carolina

The NFC South is like gambling hell. If gambling were legal. But, this still feels like such an easy pick. Joey Harrington made this once feared defense look pedestrian. Let me repeat: JOEY HARRINGTON…

Seattle (-2) over San Francisco

The war of attrition continues in the NFC West, with no team willing to step forward and take over the division. It seems the last man standing in this four-team train wreck will be the Seattle Starbucks, and that is pretty sad at this point.

San Diego (-11.5) over Kansas City

Who set this [redacted] line? What do they know about the Chargers offense that’s been such a well kept secret to date? Did Tomlinson mainline Merriman’s HGH all week? What, too soon?

Pittsburgh (-6) over Arizona

Matt Leinart or Kurt Warner? Doesn’t really matter this week, as Mike Tomlin’s Steelers look a lot like the squad that brought home the hardware a couple of years back. Strong running game, defiant defense, plus an added vertical dimension to the passing game. Sounds like 4-0 to me, and it also sounds like BLACK HEAD COACHES, SON!

Denver (+9.5) over Indy

This would be a good game…if Denver could muster even a shadow of their former dominance in the running game. That said, the Broncos are still a good football team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Bailey-Harrison battle alone will be worth the price of admission, but this is a Colts team that has squeaked by two mid-card teams the past two weeks, and while they will beat Denver, there’s no way they do it by 10.

Philly (-3) over New Jersey A-Team

After fighting to retain their A-Team status last week, a resurgent McNabb will resurrect all the calls for Tom Coughlin’s head against the walking dead that is the Giant secondary. Every time he thinks he’s out, they pull him back in, but he’ll still be the first coach fired.

New England (ONLY -7.5) over The Bungals

Yup, after dropping consecutive games to Cleveland and Seattle, they get to bring back the most deserved nickname ever. I would like to take this time to apologize to the entire Pats organization in general, and Randy Moss’ second touchdown catch specifically. I never would have thought that you could embarrass a division opponent, but I have learned my lesson: when a team fields a real-life fantasy football team, just go with it. Sorry.

Week 3: 9-4-3

To date: 15-13-4

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