Preseason Power Poll Part 2

Here comes another one, just like the other one...

15. Chicago - Happy now? Jay Cutler, you left behind Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and thin air for Devin Hester (a returner), Soldier Field (a snowy, windy mess) and a receiving corps from the island of misfit toys. John Clayton said that he is the most celebrated quarterback to step under center since a certain Sid Luckman (CU! Anybody? Anybody?) An elite quarterback can make any weapons that already exist infinitely more dangerous than they would be in mediocre hands, and no matter what you think about the exit from the Broncos, Cutler is nothing short of elite.

14. Miami - Well, it was cute while it lasted. Now that the Wildcat (Wildhog, Wild-sea mammal, whatever) has proliferated the world of the shield, what does Miami really do better than the teams they are going to be playing on Sundays? An above average defense, sure, but not nearly as dominant as other teams that rely on the 'protect the ball' offense. Then again, it's never smart to bet against Parcells. And the lesson here, as always, is that I know nothing about nothing.

13. Houston - I don't feel good about that at all. I mean, I like Matt Schaub, I LOVE Andre Johnson, and Steve Slaton makes me feel very uneasy. The offense looked great down the stretch...but there's always a smoke and mirrors team that looks good late, and falls on their faces early. Plus, with the Colts and Titans in the division, and getting better every second, can the upstarts in Texas finally make some noise in the AFC South? My rankings would say so, my head says something completely different. This was an 8-8 team last year! They gave up 394 points last year, the most in the division, and the defense didn't get any better! Why the hell are they this high? What is wrong with me?

12. San Diego - LDT, it's show time. Since the playoffs two years ago, the alleged best player in the game has been MIA to say the least. And this could be the last hurrah for this group...and that includes Norv. On the upside, a lot of players in contract years means a lot of players going out to earn that extra money. On the downside, there isn't a great chance that all these players can come back...or that bringing them back would even be a good idea. The passing game was AMAZING last year, the defense is welcoming back Shawne Merriman, the only question is if LDT can remind us why he was once upon a time a decent running back. Or if he'll pull Shaun Alexander on us. Remember him? Me neither.

11. Dallas - Here you go Tony, you got your wish. Ran your most talented (and troublesome) player out of town, and now the team is truly yours. What are you going to do with it? Jerry Jones cast his lot with you, and the best thing he can do is to take the ball out of your hands. The only guarantee that has made itself known during the Romo years is that he will do (at least) two things in the second half to lose your team the game. EVERY TIME. With three super talented running backs behind him, why wouldn't the Cowboys just run, run, run? Oh what's that? Jerry Jones has a new, super-expensive building to fill in a down economy? Nevermind.

10. Atlanta - Pat Riley has often written about the disease of more; once you start winning, everyone wants more. More credit, more of the spotlight, more exposure. And in this corner...Roddy White, demanding more money. Gee, thanks Roddy. Like I needed another reason to hate Pat Riley. The line got better on both sides of the ball. The defense (which got by on smoke and mirrors last year) got better top to bottom. The offense added a first ballot Hall of Famer at tight end. Mr. White finally showed up and has looked great. There is no reason this team should slip from the heights of last year...except the universe hates to see me happy, the franchise has never put back to back winning seasons together, the historic sophomore slump, and of course, the disease of more.

9. Minnesota - Dammit. Dammit, dammit, dammit. Too bad Bret Favre had to come back, and ruin my plans for betting against Tevaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels all season. I have no pity for the Vikings if this doesn't work, because Favre is all they have, and if he's bad, they will have been left with a bare cupboard...except for the best running back in the NFL, the Williams boys stuffing the run, and a devastating pass rush. The only time I'll feel sorry for the Vikings is when they replay the 1998 NFL Title game on television. Just kidding.

8. Indianapolis - Tony Dungy is gone. He's off chastising Michael Vick for drinking girly drinks or something, and he isn't walking through that door. Although, two other faces are walking back through; with the NFL's decision to allow two former staffers to come back to the franchise as 'consultants' (read: they are keeping their jobs and grooming replacements. And getting paid. That's really important) look for not too much drop off with the Colts. Bill Polian and Peyton Manning are still there helming the ship, and having cut ties with Marvin Harrison, this is a franchise ready to move forward. Even with this new coach at the helm. Ole-what's-his-name.

7. Baltimore - Sophomore slump? Won't even matter. Sure, history has taught us that the only players that make a huge jump in their second season is wide receivers (and Adrian Peterson), but the strength of the organization around Flacco won't let it bring them down. All of a sudden last year, B'More was the well-oiled machine of years past; all the running backs had fire, Ray Lewis was looking like it was 2003, and Ed Reed remained the best safety in football (I'm STARING at you Jacqueline Tatum. Cut your hair). If they can survive the wars with the Steel City, these guys should roll.

6. Arizona - They were in the Super Bowl last year. Yup. That's the only reason they are this high. This is a team that is hitching it's star to Kurt Warner, is bringing back an unhappy Anquan Boldin, and lost their offensive coordinator. But, they've still got that young secondary, and the grinningest player ever, Larry Fitzgerald. You know what? His smile makes me forget about the numerous misgivings I have about this team. They think Beanie Wells is the back of the future? They didn't actually improve an offensive line that looked decent to bad all year until the playoffs? The team openly gave up for way too many weeks down the stretch? Who cares!

5. Tennessee - No more Albert Haynesworth? No problem. Sure, the automatic double team is gone, and so is a lot of the freedom that he created for the linebacking corps that have not-so-quietly gotten old, but there is one reason that Tennessee will continue to be a force in the league next year. Three little syllables. Chris. John. Son. And the fact that they get to play the NFC West featuring such run stuffing defenses such as San Francisco, St. Louis and Seattle. In other words? Kerry “Sure, I'd love another” Collins won't do THAT MUCH damage under center. (Isn't it creepy how irrelevant the four principles in the greatest national title game ever have become? Vince is riding pine here, alongside LenDale White, while Reggie Bush is a situational back in New Orleans, and Matt Leinart is cashing checks in Arizona)

4. Giants - Are they good? Are they bad? Certain times last year, the offense looked anemic, and other times, they came out like gangbusters. It certainly doesn't help their case that the last time we saw them, Eli Manning was literally killing his team by losing the ability to throw the football in the wind last playoffs. Even through his inconsistencies, that crushing pass rush kept a lot of games close. That defense is one of the strongest in the NFL (they had 12 wins last year!), but can this offense stay alive when the entire fan base (and front office) is waiting for Eli to shoot himself in the thigh? Too soon?

3. Philadelphia - RIP Jim Johnson. Taking your defense against weak quarterbacks was one of the most enjoyable (and lucrative!) sports moments I could count on annually. Now, all I've got is counting on Donovan McNabb NOT to win an NFC title game. Just kidding Philly fans. Kind of. This is a team that, while adding versatile pieces like Jeremy Maclin, still lacks a true, dominant number 1 receiver if Mr. Jackson doesn't step up and overcome his size. Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown (UGA!) are both solid number 2 or even number 3 receivers, but who is getting the ball on 3rd and six? Because, on 4th and six in the NFC title game LAST year, McNabb hit Curtis in the hands, who was being tackled by Roderick Hood...and since he has no profile as a receiver in the NFL, the refs did not call the pass interference. The preceding comment is brought to you by the NFL Network and my own abject boredom certain nights in bars.

2. New England - Pending just how good that knee looks, the ceiling here could be that number 1 spot, but not just yet. Once again, the Pats had a great offseason (shocking, I know) by jettisoning some emotional favorites on defense who had lost a step or five. Offensively, it's just going to be more of the same. And by, the same, I mean the routine beat downs they handed out two years ago while setting records for passing touchdowns in a season. Add in the running back by committee model popularized by Mike Shannahan in a nefarious scheme to destroy fantasy football, and you have a football machine ready to remind us that the kid under center last year was a career backup, and Mr. Bundchen has rings. Lots of them. And he wants more.

1. Pittsburgh - They're the champs. They got younger and healthier at all the most important places (Offensive line, running back , defense), and they kept most of their players out of civil court. But, they've gotten older on the edges, as Hines Ward's (UGA!) performance catching footballs in the playoffs did not exactly inspire a lot of confidence. With only one other serious contender in their division, and getting the chance to pick on the AFC West, look for them to feast on the weak, look strong against the good teams, and re-establish the history of running that has carried this franchise throughout the years. Not the “what the hell” offense of last year that was contractually obligated to suck for 3.75 quarters every game. Ugh. They're the best so far, but man, they were not fun to watch last year.

*This column can also be found with greater production value (better lighting, clearer sound) at likethedew.com by clicking this link*

Preseason Power Poll Part 1

Alliteration on ya, like WHOA. Had to break it into two parts, because it's long as sin, but here's a look at the field. Division by division previews coming later...

32. Detroit - Well, it can't get worse? Can it? First ever 0-16 team...and looking at this schedule, they seem to be a lock to win...well, none of them. They've got Calvin Johnson. They've got a young, strong armed quarterback under center, provided Dante Culpepper is really done. The Lions are doing their best to sell a franchise that exemplified futility throughout recent memory, and they should be commended for that. Here's a mortal lock for you: Detroit will more than double last year's win total. You're welcome.

31. St. Louis - Oh look, another first time head coach. Another disappointing 2008 campaign, and another team that looks to have 'lather, rinse, repeat' printed on their season already. Their quarterback got older, their receivers got more ambiguous, the running back is getting more wasted in that backfield, and the staff they brought in is mostly defensive in background. Well, they should lose by less this year, so that's something.

30. Seattle - Jim Mora Jr., welcome back. I was never a fan of how you left Atlanta all those years ago, but I understand why you had to go. I have some bad news though; your quarterback has chronic back problems (you don't fix back problems; you live with them), you have no running back of note besides Julius “I Smoke A Pack A Day” Jones, and it's Seattle, the most beat-down sports city of the 2000s. Pretty much, the season will come down to if Seneca Wallace can develop a rapport with Housh. I'm betting not.

29. Oakland - I can't even make any jokes. Look for Garcia to either win the quarterback battle by end of camp, or at the latest, under center by Week 6. Look for Darren McFadden to improve on an underwhelming, injury laden rookie campaign. Finally, look for Al Davis to continue to do his best to destroy any positive memories of his once proud franchise.

28. Kansas City - With his big, fat new contract, do you think Matt Cassel bought Bernard Pollard an Aston Martin, a Bugatti, a Maserati, or one of each? What a weird, circular story that was; Brady gets hurt against the Chiefs, Cassel goes on to play better than expected, getting Josh McDaniel the Denver job (that should not have been vacant anyway), leading McDaniel to make an ass of himself trying to get Cassel, only to have him end up in Kansas City. Bernard Pollard directly altered the destinies over the past 10 months of the Pats, the Broncos, the Bears, and the Chiefs. Though in the case of the Chiefs, not enough.

27. Cleveland - Brady Quinn or...that other guy. Neither a slam dunk choice, because neither gives guaranteed results. Derek Anderson was a Pro Bowler one year, and a section 8 the next. Quinn wasn't impressive pre-injury last year. And Ken Dorsey...well, thanks for coming out. The offense should improve, as Braylon Edwards can't play any worse than last year, and maybe they can find a running game to compliment. Tough to do and be successful when the top two teams in your division were in the AFC Title Game last year.

26. Tampa Bay - I've decided that Raheem Morris' introductory press conference was the exact opposite of Al Pacino's “Peace With Inches” speech in Any Given Sunday. This was given way too much thought by me, but since Pacino's speech makes me want to tear somebody apart for the inches that are everywhere around us, and Morris' speech made me want to give that same somebody all my inches, and limp away sadly, I think this is about right. Questions at quarterback, running back, receiver, offensive line, and defensive back, this is right where they belong.

25. Buffalo - Everything says this team should be better. They signed a talented wide receiver on the downside of his career who won't allow teams to lock in on their number 1, Lee Evans. The offensive line is mostly intact, and if they can keep Trent Edwards on his feet, and if Trent Edwards can keep TO happy and if the defense gets better, and if the team as a whole survives the whole 'no running back for five games' thing, and if we ignore the signs that this team is moving to Toronto, they should be fine. That is a lot of 'ifs' though...

24. Cincinnati - This week, on “Why Won't They Fire This Guy?!?”, we sneak a peek in Bengals camp, and see signs of a repeat of every other year of the Marvin Lewis era everywhere we look. Middling start? Check. Off season troubles with your self-proclaimed best receiver (and he might be, now that Housh is a Seahawk)? Check. Injury questions about important players? Check. Look for them to get beat up on by everyone they play, and look for Chad Johnson's (I refuse to acknowledge that idiotic new last name) ego to tip the boat over once they get a rocky start.

23. Jets - Well, that was nice. The whole Brett Favre experiment re-energized the fan base, re-lit some dormant rivalries...and demolished any future for your young quarterback (Clemens) and got your coach fired. Good job? Nothing's changed this year, except the young quarterback gets his ego bashed in not by an old man selling Wranglers, but by a young man selling...well, I'm not sure yet, but I bet the commercials will annoy me...

22. Denver - And now, for a very special, "Why Won't They Fire This Guy?", Josh McDaniels angles to get fired before coaching an NFL game. While I admire his ambition to break the land speed record for firing, the person I feel most for is Pat Bowlen. Not only did he fire the most iconic coach in franchise history (not to mention his best friend), and have his rocket-armed quarterback of the future bolt for the greener pastures of Soldier Field, but he's got Lane Kiffen 2.0 doing his best to derail everything he has built over the years. Too bad it's his own fault. Well, his and Brandon Marshall. (I want to start a Madden Franchise with the Broncs so digital Brandon Marshall can get digitally arrested by week 9.)

21. New Orleans - Finesse teams haven't traditionally done well in this NFL lately. The Colts only got to (and won!) once their defense started playing physically...at least, physically enough to push around the Bears. This team is only as good as their quarterback, but as long as his running game is on the back of a man with a French first name (Pierre Thomas...this is football!), and an oft injured glorified kick returner. We'll see if the defense can do anything and compete in the NFC South.

20. San Francisco - Different city by the bay, same story. Just not any good. But, I have to give credit where it's due, and Singletary had this motley crew playing better than every down the stretch last year. If his not-so-notable quarterbacks can keep up, and Frank Gore can show more consistency than the past two years, they could make some noise in the NFC West.

19. Washington - The Zorn Supremacy. Year two. I think that this new habit of undervaluing Clinton Portis is going to bit all of us right in the face. This is a guy who consistently has run hard all year, and he'll have a quarterback that is in year two of this offense, and a rich defense that can control the game, if these players live up to a fraction of their paychecks. Too bad the NFC East is so stacked this year.

18. Carolina - Jake Delhomme. Welcome to the hot seat! Can a non-coach be on the hot seat? After that debacle of a playoff performance last season, how can he not be? I mean, it was really just a super-sized version of his usual exploits, but that was so bad, no Carolina fan dare even attempt to explain it away. It just can't be done. But, the twin running backs are looking to avoid their vanishing act in that game, and based on last years results, they seem very able to deliver.

17. Jacksonville - Jack Del Rio. Welcome to the hot seat! After the debacle of last season, including a veteran running back saying this was the most dysfunctional team he had ever seen, he needs to come through big here to solidify his hold in J'ville. We (the gambling public) all waited for the week they would turn it on, and look like the team from two years ago. My bet would be that they middle around 8-8 and just miss the playoffs.

16. Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers, take two. This time, not only does our young quarterback have the unforgettable shadow of one Bret Favre, but also the unfulfilled promise of a season that looked special early last year, but ended acrimoniously. My new roommate is a lifelong Packers fan, and he sees them finishing around 11-5. At times, Aaron Rodgers looked competent last year, but he (and that defense) fizzled hard down the stretch. They need him to be lights out if they hope to finish in the top half of this division, especially since on paper he is the 3rd best quarterback in the NFC North.

*This column can also be found with greater production value (better lighting, clearer sound) at likethedew.com by clicking this link*

NBA Season Preview

My NFL picks have been awful, and subsequently pulled down. Sorry. I don't want to think about how bad it's been for me. Though, someone has been enjoying my recent bout of bad luck; let's just say their name starts with a 'B' and ends in an 'ookie'. Ugh. Anyway, my favorite time of the year is here, and no, it's not the inevitable Bud Selig meltdown that reminds us that mental patients shouldn't run professional sports - it's basketball season!

Looking back at my predictions from last year, I didn't do TOO badly, so hopefully this short team by team breakdown holds up a little too.

Atlantic Division

Boston - The champs are back. They reloaded, kept KG and Pierce happy, and Ray Allen is too OCD not to be ready. They lose the pre-game Posey hugs, and held on to Cassell, but I still look for good things as they hang #17 tonight.

Philly - Ignore the fact that Elton Brand has looked slow in the preseason, that they can't run with him on the floor, and that he is coming off of a torn Achilles tendon. Focus on the Andres and Lou Williams to be the most exciting show in town, until the play in...

Toronto - Love the addition of Jermaine O'Neal, if indeed he has anything left in the tank. Will free up Bosh from playing in the middle, which he isn't that great at, and with Calderon at the point, they will be the 7-Seconds or less Raptors...or maybe 10-Turnover Toronto. We'll see.

New Jersey - Devin Harris will be an All Star in a few years, despite video evidence to the contrary. His supporting cast isn't terrible, and I'd put the over-under of games Vince tanks at 30 (take the over).

New York - Mike D'Antoni claims he loves the 'challenge' this Knicks roster presents to his style of coaching. If by 'challenge' he means that they couldn't possibly fit his system any worse, than this is a hell of a 'challenge'. At least he'll have comfortable evenings on his bed of money.

*Breaking News* - Eddy Curry is stunned not to be in rotation. Rest of the world is stunned he is stunned.

Central

Cleveland - What do you mean they signed Mo Williams? What do you mean this might mean LeBron will stop outside shooting? What do mean they are still the second best defensive team in the East?

Detroit - It hurts me to say it. We're officially on the downside of the 'cockiest guys who only won 1 ring' era. Billups seemed more than a little off as the season wore on, and Rasheed Wallace + new coach = lot's of great television.

Chicago - Derrick Rose looks good. Really good. That said, there is a logjam at the guard position, and if cooler heads prevail, it could be a decent running team. Why didn't D'Antoni take this job again? (Glances at aforementioned piles of money) Right...

Milwalkee - Richard Jefferson, come on down! Still don't like the guy, but I enjoy the addition of Scott Skiles on the bench for the defense, and Andrew Bogut might convince me he's not terrible.

Indiana - I was wrong about them last year, so maybe I'll be wrong this year. But, if I'm not, this team should play 0 nationally televised games. ZERO.

Southeast

Orlando - Dwight Howard has been found after vanishing in the medal rounds of the Olympics, we can all rest easy. I love their front court of DHow, Rashad "Wait, how big is my contract" Lewis and Hedo Turkaglu, and their big reserves ain't bad either. Too bad no one is backing up Jameer Nelson adequately. Huh. There's something I never thought I'd say.

Miami - Dwayne Wade effectively ruined the best thing I was ever going to write. I have been working on a DWade - Penny Hardaway piece since I started this stupid blog last year, and in one Olympics, he rendered it all moot. Their coach looks like Steve Pizzi.

Atlanta - Maybe the best starting 5 in the division. I mean that. They can play fast (Bibby, Smith), they can play half court (Johnson, Horford) and they can play adequately (Williams). The problem is you can't play just 5 players over 48 minutes.

Washington - Injury bug. I think the preseason stuff is going to put them in a hole that will be insurmountable once Caron and Agent Zero make it back.

Charlotte - Larry Brown baby. He hates young players and excels with vets who play defense. What about that roster made him think this was a good fit?

Eastern Conference Playoff Seeds

1. Boston
2. Cleveland
3. Orlando
4. Detroit
5. Philly
6. Toronto
7. Miami
8. Atlanta

Northwest

Utah - Williams getting hurt early won't matter as much as one would think; this is a veteran team that played lights out last year after getting Korver from the Sixers. If they can hold on to Boozer, and keep him happy, look for another deep run out of the most inappropriately nicknamed team in the NBA.

Portland - Holy crap. I guess the Tampa Bay Rays model of success can work in other sports (if you're really bad long enough, you will stockpile enough picks to be good). Without Greg Oden, the flirted with the playoffs, with him, they're on the third date with the playoffs. Count them in.

Denver - Count them out. Look, their defense wasn't as bad as everyone tried to make it seem (fastest pace in basketball = everyone is going to score, check their per-possession numbers), but moving your best two defensive pieces in Camby and Najara won't help things. AI might get moved this year again.

Seattle - I don't want to hear it. They never moved, they never adopted that ridiculous moniker, and they never robbed a historic NBA city of their team. My only regret is that I can't pick them last in this division because of...

Minnesota - Good God. I was right about them last year, and I'll be right again this year. ZERO times on my TV this year, God willing. In a related story, Kevin will not be able to make it to the ring ceremony in Boston tonight, but rest assured, his ring is in the mail.

Pacific

Lakers - Well, speaking of GMs on other teams deserving of playoff bonuses, Chris Wallace come on down! If you can convince Lamar into being happy coming off the bench (and you know Phil can), then this scary team just got scarier. By the way, Kobe Bryant is the best player in the world. There. I said it. Don't believe me? Look at how everyone else deferred to him during crunch time in the Gold Medal game this summer. Even Bron-Bron.

Pheonix - Old. Old old old. We buried the 'seven seconds or less' Suns last year, could this be the year we bury them altogether? Motivated Shaq, healthier Amare and Steve Nash bring this crew to the playoffs, but not much further. Oh, and Terry Porter's 'new, defensive minded approach'? I give it a month.

Clippers - I like the size inside with Kamen and Camby, but I don't like Baron Davis on the injured list. They don't play enough D as a team to make the playoffs, but maybe Baron getting hurt early will serve them down the stretch.

Golden State - Who's left? Baron bolted, Monta is suspended for 30 games, and Corey Maggette is their number 1 guy to start the year. I'll let that sink in for a while.

Sacremento - You can bet on NBA games in the Palms now!!! Except for Kings games. Which means you'll have to go elsewhere to bet against Kevin Martin and his team.

Southwest

New Orleans - Chris Paul might be my favorite player in the world right now, and not just because he's amazing in NBA 2K9. They lost some point guard depth with Pargo leaving, but things that keep Chris Paul on the floor aren't a bad thing. They're a good thing.

San Antonio - They are only here because I can't put the Rockets higher than 3rd. No Manu early means the Spurs will be leaning on Duncan a lot sooner than usual, and that adds to his opportunity to get burned out sooner. Plus, I still hate Tony Parker.

Houston - McGrady! Yao! Artest! Now there's three players you can win a lot of games with... too bad they've won a combined 1 playoff series...and that's from when Artest was with the Pacers. Plus, all the health issues between McGrady and Yao, I just don't like them to advance past round 1.

Dallas - Wait, did this division send 4 teams to the dance last year? Look for Mark Cuban to look more and more disheveled as he realizes he gave away a future All Star for a Hall of Famer past his prime, who's style of play is diametrically opposed to Dirk Nowitzki's.

Memphis - O.J. Mayo! Marc Gasol! Mike Conley Jr.! Maybe in a few years fellas, until then, enjoy getting to see most of the U.S. on the company dime.

Western Conference Playoff Seeds

1. Lakers
2. Hornets
3. Utah
4. Spurs
5. Pheonix
6. Houston
7. Portland
8. Clippers

Hardware Picks

ROY - Michael Beasley; runner-up - O.J. Mayo
Defensive Player of the Year - Kevin Garnett; runner-up - Marcus Camby
Coach of the Year - Nate McMilllian; runner-up - Jerry Sloan
MVP - LeBron James; runner-up - Chris Paul

2008 NFL Preview + Week 1 Picks

It's hard to believe that a just over a year ago, I typed numerous predictions that were horribly, horribly wrong. Continuing my lifetime of not learning from my mistakes, I return, to make more awful predictions.

AFC East
1. Pats
2. Jets
3. Buffalo
4. Fins

Hm. Well, the Pats got younger at their most crucial position on the defensive side of the ball, with Rosey Colvin being replaced by Mayo. Plus, they don't have exactly the most daunting schedule this year, and while 16-0 is too much to hope for, I think 14-2 is well within reach.

The former Jersey-B team got way more respectable with the off season additions of Alan Faneca and Damien Woody helping out the running game. Plus, I heard that they had a slight upgrade at quarterback...Look for the Jets to fight for a wild card spot this year.

Buffalo/Toronto is an interesting case this year, as Marshawn Lynch looks to be poised to break out, but the uncertainty on the offensive line might hold him back. They've got a proven NFL starter under center, but I don't see them playing in January. I'm pretty down on the Fins...as is every NFL prognosticator, commentator, and I'd venture to guess most Miami players. But, look for exciting things out of the Ricky Williams show, provided he doesn't get TOO high.

AFC North
1. B'More
2. Pitt
3. "Browns"
4. Cincy

Maybe I've been watching too much "The Wire"(no such thing as too much). Maybe watching Ray Lewis' kid brother on Hard Knocks got to me. Maybe I believe in Joe Flacco...I mean Kyle Boller...I mean Troy Smith...I mean Joe Flacco again. Quarterback carousel aside, I have to think that the defense bounces back from the embarrassment of last season to continue carrying this team to greatness. Maybe.

Pittsburgh was impressive at times last year, but Willie Parker needs to get in the end zone more, and Limas Sweed needs to live up to the hype. If your offense is dependent on a starter returning from a big injury, and in the injection of a talented rookie, you most likely aren't ending up1st in the division. The "Browns" might be one hit wonders, and even if they aren't, preseason injuries to Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards makes me question this potent offense.

I think Cincy is irreparably broken, and needs a coaching change immediately. I really like Marvin Lewis, but this stuff is getting out of hand. Negative press at every turn, and now with a big(ger than reported) injury to Chad Johnson, I don't see them breaking .500. Again.

AFC South
1. Colts
2. J'Ville
3. Texans
4. Tennessee

Here goes the division I feel the worst about. I have no idea how this is going to finish. I'm ignoring the growing rumors that Peyton had a second knee surgery, and that the knee swells up at the slightest movement. I'm also going to ignore the Marvin Harrison gun story, as did every news outlet across the country this off season.

No one should want to play the Jags this year. This is an angry team, with a dangerous quarterback, and a dominant defense. The Texans got derailed last year by fluky injuries, so I look for former Falcon Matt Schaub to have a great year. Tennessee is not this low because I'm down on them, but because I'm frankly dumbfounded. How did this division get this good? Can we annex one of these teams to the AFC West, so that we can have three of them in the play offs? Speaking of...

AFC West
1. Super-Chargers
2. Broncos
3. Raiders
4. KC

Well, duh. Since LDT has revealed himself only to vanish during meaningful playoff games, San Diego should be pretty set throughout the regular season. The fact that the rest of the of the division happens to be the anti-AFC South helps alot too.

I'm tired of reading about how Jay Cutler is going to turn the corner this year. You mean with his best receiver benched for the first game...that just HAPPENS to be a division game? Right. The Raiders actually intrigue me, but when it comes down to it, I choose the proven commodity of Mike Shannhan over some kid who has to knock out a paper route before coming to the office everyday. I just think those hours are going to eat at his teenage mind and body. How is the fact that Al Davis tried to force Lane Kiffen into quitting after last year not being mentioned at all? The owner trying to get rid of the coach, and failing, would be a pretty big deal heading into a new season, if you ask me. The only thing worse than that, is if you're picked to finish behind that team.

Hi Herm Edwards.

NFC East
1. Dallas
2. Philly
3. Skins
4. Super Bowl Hangovers

In light of last night's Fantasy Draft, Dallas has to put up points, or I'm done. The only thing working against them is the fact that they have been remarkably healthy/lucky for the past three years, and something has to give...right?

I want Philly to win this division. I think the people of Philadelphia need their team to win this division. And if Donovan F. doesn't win this division, he could be job hunting come next season. They have the defense. They have the QB. They just have to get it done. The Redskins are breaking in a first year coach, they have an aging defense, and I just don't see them going on the miracle run of last season.

Up in New York, no matter what they tell you, it is REALLY HARD to replace the starting defensive ends off of a Super Bowl winning team. Especially when they are the reason for your past success.

NFC North
1. Green Bay
2. Minnesota
3. Lions
4. Bears

You asked for it, you got it. The Aaron Rodgers era is underway. At least he's got a dominant defense, a decent running game, and some talented skill players to help he along. And since each of the other three teams is missing a major part of a successful football team, they win by default. Minnesota has the D, but is starting Tavaris Jackson, and Adrian Peterson hasn't played a full season since his freshman year in college. The Lions have the talent, but no running game or defense. The Bears allegedly still have a defense, but they don't have anything else.

NFC South
1. Carolina
2. Saints
3. Bucs
4. Falcons

Carolina wins this. I mean, the Saints. I mean Tampa Bay. Look, all I know is Atlanta finishes fourth. After stabbing their fans in the face by not drafting Dorsey, they twisted the knife by starting the new 'franchise quarterback' behind an offensive offensive line. Ok, enough about them, or I'm going to shoot myself.

If Delhomme is back 100%, and Peppers and the defense can rebound from the abysmal showing last year, look for them to make some noise. The Saints look to be poised to come back after starting really slow last year. Every time a team wins this division, the next year their in the basement. Unfortunately, the Falcons are parked in the basement for the foreseeable future, so Tampa will be sharing the space with them.

NFC West
1. Seahawks
2. Niners
3. St. Louis
4. Arizona

How is the West in both conferences freaking embarrassing? The Seahawks are perennially good, mostly because their division is garbage. The departure (and subsequent unemployment) of Shaun Alexander means running back by committee here, which appears to be the way most of the L is moving. Hasselbeck is always a consistent QB, and his receivers looked to be developing into something special at the end of last year.

The Niners are going to continue to be awful, even with Mike Martz running the show. With Patrick Willis holding down the defense, they should bottle up the other two teams in the league, who have their own problems. The Rams should be interesting this year, in the sense that they are going to be imploding before week 8. Good times. Is Matt Leinart officially a bust, since he has gotten beaten out by a 55 year old man in Kurt Warner? The Arizona defense stars Carlos Dansby...and no one else.

AFC Playoff Teams:
1. Pats
2. Chargers
3. Baltimore
4. Indy
5. Jax
6. Jets

NFC Playoff Teams:
1. Dallas
2. Carolina
3. Green Bay
4. Seahawks
5. Philly
6. Saints

Super Bowl:
Pats over Philly...again. Sorry Philadelphia phans, but they will not be denied this time, especially since now Belichick is cheating in HD.

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Week 1 Picks:
I'm tired of writing, so nothing witty about these games. Home teams, as always, in bold.

Washington (+4.5) over Giants

Baltimore (+1.5) over Cincy

Jets (-3) over Miami

Pats (-15.5) over KC

Houston (+6.5) over Pitt

J'ville (-3) over Tenn

Detroit (-3) over Atl

Seattle (+1) over Buffalo

N.O. (-3) over Tampa Bay

Philly (-7.5) over St. Louis

Dallas (-5.5) over Cleveland

Carolina (+9.5) over San Diego

Zona (-2.5) over San Fran

Indy (-9.5) over Chi-Town

Minnesota (+2.5) over Green Bay

Denver (-3) over Oakland